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Extreme Climatic Events in New England History
Climate is the average of a series of weather events. Therefore as climate changes in New England, from both natural and human-induced causes, the number of particular weather events (such as nor’easters, ice storms, and tornadoes) may also increase or decrease. Similarly, the magnitude of these individual events may lessen, or more alarmingly, increase with these changes. As a result, the greatest impact of future climatic change on New England may come in the form of changes in the number and intensity of extreme events and not necessarily average climatic changes that occur over decades or longer time periods. The importance to society of these distinct climatic events is that they can alter lives forever and potentially very quickly (i.e., within minutes, hours or just a few days). On the other hand, a very cold summer that results in poor agricultural yields, or a poor tourist season, can also be considered an extreme climatic event. Of course, what we all want to know is:
How will extreme events impact New England in the future?
The most reliable way to characterize the nature of extreme events and what may happen in the future is to look at the characteristics of these events in the past. By examining such events, we hope to learn how they may have varied in the past, and how they affected the various distinct regions within New England. We also need to examine past magnitudes of these events, their frequencies, and whether trends over time exist for particular types of events, for example, whether the number of exceptionally strong nor’easters increased over the past few centuries. A knowledge of such events may allow us to answer the following general questions:
Did particular types of events occur more frequently in the past then they have in the last few years or even in the 1990s as a whole?

What type of trends do we see in the past that may have a bearing on what will happen in the future?

To begin to answer these questions, we have started to examine various sources of data. One is existing instrumental records from meteorological stations across the region. Most of these records span the last century, although a few may cover the last 200 years. To extend our record beyond the last one to two centuries, we are compiling and evaluating daily weather accounts recorded in personal diaries, journals, and almanacs, as well as other types of historical data (e.g., dates of apple harvest and "ice-out" on area lakes) useful in evaluating changes in seasonal conditions over time. These records provide detailed information on not only how these events have varied in the past, but also how they influenced earlier generations of New Englanders.

Following are a few examples of how extreme climatic events (blizzards, ice storms, hurricanes, rainstorms, tornadoes) have varied over the recent past.

Blizzards
Several major snow storms have impacted New England in the 1990s, such as the March 1993 "superstorm" and the large blizzard of 1996, leading to the question of whether we are in a trend of increasing nor’easters, either in number or in magnitude or both. To answer this question as well as to evaluate the record of the number of snow storms in general, the daily number of snowfalls of 1-5 inches (Figure 3.1) and of > 5 inches (Figure 3.2) for Durham, NH (seacoast region) and Hanover, NH (inland site) are plotted beginning with the winter of 1926-1927.

Several interesting results that warrant our continued investigation into possible causes for these patterns can be seen in these records. Beginning with the smaller snowfalls (Figure 3.1), the most obvious finding is the greater number of snow events that occur in Hanover compared to Durham. The average number of 1-5 inch snows per year in Hanover over the last 50+ years is almost 16 snows per year compared to about 11 annually in Durham. Such a finding is not unexpected as there are fewer storms that turn to rain or fall completely as rain in Hanover, whereas the warming impact of the ocean changes much solid precipitation to liquid in Durham. Of greater interest is the apparent decreasing trend in the number of snowstorms per year at both sites over this 50+ year record. In general, there were a greater number of years with an average or greater than average number of 1-5 inch snowfalls in the late 1920s to early 1940s than in more recent times. The lowest number of 1-5 inch snows occurs at both sites since about 1980, although there seems to be an increase in the number of storms toward the long-term average in the later part of the 1990s.

Continuing investigation into these records including the use of records from other stations around New Hampshire and New England will lead to a more thorough answer to questions such as:
What is the significance of this general trend to decreasing small snow events in recent years?

Is it a function of climate warming that has resulted in a greater number of rain events in the winter over the past two decades compared to the 1920s and 1930s or something else?

Is the frequency of these smaller snowstorms in a declining trend or are the trends more variable and fluctuating?
The average number of daily accumulations 5 inches, and thus the greatest number of snowfalls that probably originate from nor’easters, is 3.5 snowfalls per year at both Durham and Hanover. In this case, the greater proximity of Durham to the coast actually results in an equal number of larger snows in the seacoast region of New Hampshire compared to further inland. This scenario reflects the tremendous importance of the track of coastal storms on New Hampshire and New England snowfall totals. A greater number of storms close to the coast will bring a higher number of 5 inch snows to the Hanover area and less to Durham because snow often will change to rain along the coast. If the main storm track is more frequently found farther offshore, there will be a greater number of 5 inch snowfalls in Durham and less in Hanover, since Hanover is farther from the center of such storms. We discuss the long-term trend in these larger snowfalls below. As for the total number of snowfall days, we conclude that there are a greater number of total snowfall events further inland in New Hampshire, but there appears to be an equal number of large storms per year across the region. Continued investigations may further support these initial findings or we may find that there are different trends along the New England coast as a function of latitude.

The long-term trend in the number of larger storms appears to be more variable than that of the general decline in 1-5 inch snowfalls over the 50+ years of record. At both sites (Figure 3.2) the greatest number of larger accumulations consistently occurred from roughly the mid-1950s to the late 1970s/early 1980s. The period with the greatest number of large storms per year is the decade from the late 1960s to the late 1970s. There are other years with an abundant number of moderate to larger blizzards such as in the 1930s and 1940s and again in the early 1990s, but they do not occur as frequently as they did in the mid-1950s to late 1970s.Given these initial findings, we ask:
Is there a discernible cyclicity in the number of larger snowfalls across New Hampshire and New England?
To answer this question more completely, it will be necessary to evaluate other snowfall records from around the region, especially at coastal sites such as Boston and Portland, for comparison with other inland sites. Information gathered from as many sites as possible will help us generate and then answer other questions such as:
How has the spatial variability in the number and magnitude of nor’easters changed over time?
Ice Storms
The January 1998 ice storm clearly was a major event in New England history (Figure 3.3), but how does it stand up to other ice storms of the past?

Compilations by Ludlum (1976) show that there have been several major ice storms in various parts of New England over the past two centuries. Perhaps the greatest of these was the 26-29 November 1921 storm. Seventy-five hours of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow fell over central and eastern Massachusetts producing slightly over 4 inches of mixed precipitation in Worcester. Ice was 2 inches thick on many power lines and over 100,000 trees were damaged or destroyed. More recently, a 36-hour period of mixed precipitation and freezing rain in December of 1973 produced total precipitation amounts between 1 and 3 inches in parts of Connecticut. Almost one third of the state was without power and tree damage was estimated to be greater than the 1938 hurricane. Other storms throughout New England in the early 1900s and late 1800s are known to have produced large amounts of mixed precipitation, such as the 7 inches of sleet and ice in northwest Connecticut in February 1898. Although past ice storms may have produced local damage similar to the ice storm of 1998, they pale in comparison to the spatial extent of the damage from the 1998 storm. In addition to the extensive damage in New Hampshire shown in Figure 3.3 , severe damage also occurred in Maine, Vermont, upstate New York and southern Quebec. Because the distribution of damage from past ice storms is not easily compiled, identifying any trends in the number and severity of ice storms over time warrants our continued investigation of this type of climatic event. Surely New England will feel the effects of future storms as we become more susceptible to their widespread impact with increasing population, and modern reliance on electricity, automobile travel, and communication.

Hurricanes
Hurricanes and tropical storms are often classified as the "greatest storms on earth." Although wind speeds in the most powerful hurricanes are not as intense as the most powerful tornadoes, hurricanes encompass a much larger area and can produce damage not only from high winds, but also from storm surge and heavy rainfall. Vast regions can feel the effects of these storms, even locations at great distance from a storm center can be affected because of the wave energy and rainfall that is generated.

Surprisingly, the year with the highest number of storms making landfall in the region was 1888 with three (figure 3.4). No other year since has experienced this many tropical storms and hurricanes. There is evidence of temporal clustering of events. For example, during a five-year period from 1896 through 1900, each year experienced one storm event; for the following 11 straight years, 1905-1915, New England had no landfalling storms. The three-year period 1959-1961 had five events, as did 1971-1973.

New England hurricanes generally originate near the Cape Verde Islands or near Bermuda. Their paths exhibit very little curvature while taking a northerly path towards the New England coast (Vega and Binkley, 1994). New England-bound tropical storm systems can maintain much of their intensity as a result of their trajectory over the warm Gulf Stream current, which produces warm sea surface temperatures along the East Coast all the way to the shores of Long Island, Rhode Island, and the south shore of Cape Cod. As a result, southern New England is most vulnerable to hurricane landfall, with Cape Cod having the highest average frequency of hurricane force winds, averaging one occurrence every 14 years. Most of Rhode Island and Connecticut average one occurrence every 17 years, and Maine experiences winds of hurricane strength about once every 20 to 25 years (Simpson and Riehl, 1981). Direct landfall of hurricanes has extremely low probabilities along the eastern Massachusetts and New Hampshire coastline, although these areas are affected by hurricanes making landfall elsewhere in the region.

There are many years on record with no landfalling hurricanes, but near misses are prevalent; (e.g., 1937 had five storms pass near New England) with eventual landfall in the Maritimes of Canada. More recently, in 1996, Hurricanes Edouard and Hortense gave New Englanders a scare as they churned up the East Coast, before veering away from the area. In such instances, the storms can generate enough wave energy, and sometimes storm surge, that coastal erosion and flooding can cause serious damage. High winds can also be generated in the coastal zone in these cases. Also, a number of storms have made landfall much farther south, e.g., along the Gulf of Mexico coast or along the east coast in the southern United States, but are steered to New England over land. For example in 1979, Hurricane David made landfall in South Carolina, then passed through the mid-Atlantic states to New York and finally passed through Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. That same year, Hurricane Frederick made landfall near Mobile, Alabama, and over land made it to northern Vermont and Maine. Such storms arrive here in a weakened condition or as storm remnants, but their impacts can be significant. For example, Hurricane Bertha in 1996 made landfall in North Carolina and traveled inland to New England where it still was able to produce very heavy rainfall region wide.

Despite their rare appearances, tropical storms and hurricanes tend to have a large impact in the region because of the high population density found in the New England coastal zone. Perhaps the most notorious New England hurricane was the Hurricane of 1938, which was a Category 3 hurricane, with winds speeds between 111 and 130 mph. This storm made landfall over Long Island, New York, and western Connecticut, and then took a northerly path through western Massachusetts and western Vermont, with a forward velocity of over 60 mph (Ludlum, 1976). It was the 21st most powerful storm to strike the United States in the 20th century, yet was the fourth deadliest in the United States, with 600 deaths attributed directly to it and its aftermath. Part of the explanation for the high death toll stems from the high population base that was affected; in addition, there was little notice that the storm was even coming. Storm surge was up to seventeen feet in some locations in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, with reports of waves between 30 and 40 feet high (Ludlum, 1976). Over $4 billion (adjusted for inflation) in damages were incurred, which ranks as the eighth most costly storm in United States history.

Surprisingly, the Hurricane of 1938 was only the second most powerful to make landfall in New England (Table 1). Hurricane Gloria in 1985 was the most powerful to make landfall here, packing winds over 140 mph. In contrast to 1938, however, emergency preparedness was much improved, and Hurricane Gloria did not take the same toll in human lives, nor in property damage. Interestingly, the fourth and fifth most powerful storms to strike New England occurred just 11 days apart in 1954.
Could it be possible that tropical storms and hurricanes are becoming less intense and less frequent in New England?
Given the dates presented in Table 1 (in addition to the time series in Figure 3.4), there is no suggestion that New England hurricanes and tropical storms are now getting more intense or frequent, which is in general agreement with the results of Henderson-Sellers et al. (1998) for the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. In fact, four of the top five events this century occurred prior to 1955.

Table 1.
Five most Intense New England Hurricanes, 1900-97.
Hurricane Date Pressure in Millibars
Gloria 27 September 1985 942
Number 4-1938 21 September 1938 946
Number 7-1944 15 September 1944 947
Edna 11 September 1954 954
Carol 31 August 1954 960
Source is the National Hurricane Center. Since accurate wind speed data are lacking for many hurricanes in the earlier decades examined, the central barometric pressure of the hurricanes are posted as an index for storm strength, with lower pressure relating to a stronger storm.

Rainstorms
New England can experience heavy rainfall from three sources:
  • hurricanes/tropical
  • storms and their remnants, nor’easters or other synoptic-scale mid-latitude cyclones
  • localized storms that are generated by free-convection, particularly in summer.
Summertime free-convection can produce very extreme rainfall, but is typically limited in area and generally of lesser magnitude than those rainstorms produced by larger-scale features. Therefore, this discussion focuses on the more regional heavy rains produced by the two former mechanisms.

Table 2 displays the largest precipitation events recorded in New England over the past 50 years. The largest single-day precipitation event recorded in New England was 18.15 inches at Westfield, Massachusetts, produced by Hurricane Diane in late August 1955. In all, this single event produced 19.75 inches of rainfall at Westfield over three days (18-20 August 1955), which is the single largest rainfall event in New England (Keim, 1998). One-day rainfall totals from this event were in excess of 10 inches at numerous sites in Massachusetts and Connecticut. It was particularly damaging because the storm followed the heavy rains produced by Hurricane Connie in southern New England on 12-13 August. As a result of these two storms, the month of August 1955 went into the record books as one of the all-time record months for total precipitation, with values reaching over 25 inches for parts of Massachusetts and Connecticut (Figure 3.5).

The second greatest singe-day rainfall event occurred in late October of 1996 and is detailed by Keim (1998). This event, produced by a "continental nor’easter," generated the heaviest rainfall values along the east coast of New England from Boston, Massachusetts, to Portland, Maine (Figure 3.6). From this event, Camp Ellis and Gorham, Maine, recorded storm rainfall totals over three days of 19.2 and 19.0 inches, respectively. Also, Maine and New Hampshire set all-time records for one-day rainfall events during this storm. Analysis of rainfall extremes in the region revealed that the event was in gross excess of a 100-year storm event between Boston and Portland, and at some locations in Maine, it was close to a 500-year storm event. In other words, a storm of this magnitude or greater could be expected to occur only once every 500 years, on the average, or that any single year has a 1/5th of 1 percent chance of experiencing a storm like this. Impacts included river-basin flooding, loss of potable water supplies, and road and bridge damage.

Five of the eight storms listed in Table 2 occurred in the months from August to October, suggesting that these events are usually tropical, in the form of a hurricane or tropical storm. However, some of the most powerful nor’easters can also occur in October (Dolan and Davis, 1992), and these weather systems are generators of heavy rainfall. Of these eight events, all but the storms on 6 June 1982, 31 December 1948, and 16 October 1955 had some tropical component. Even the continental nor’easter on 21 October 1996 had some of its moisture contributed by Hurricane Lili, located in the Atlantic at the time. Interaction between tropical storms/hurricanes and mid-latitude storm systems is not unprecedented in New England; e.g., the Vermont flood of 1927 was produced under similar circumstances. Though not included in Table 2, this event produced 9.65 inches of rain at Somerset, Vermont, with estimates of 15 inches at higher elevations nearby (Ludlum, 1976).

Based on Table 2, there is no suggestion that the heaviest of rainfall events are increasing as a result of global warming, since half of these events occurred in the first 8 years (1948-1955) under examination. However, the 1990s have experienced some unusual rain and flood events; e.g., Portsmouth, New Hampshire had two events in the past three years, one of which exceeded a 100-year event (October 1996) and the other exceeded a 50-year event (June 1998). These results illustrate the difficulty in trying to understand what is happening based on a fifty-year record, and the urgency of creating a much longer one.

Table 2.
Largest 1-day Precipitation Events Recorded in New England, 1948-97.
Location Date Rainfall (in.)
Westfield, MA 19 August 1955 18.15
Portland, ME 21 October 1996 11.71
Cockaponset, RI 6 June 1982 10.47
Torrington, CT 31 December 1948 8.91
Middleton, MA 6 October 1962 8.64
Woods Hole, MA 3 September 1972 8.55
Norfolk, CT 16 October 1955 8.20
Brunswick, ME 11 September 1954 8.05
Source is the New Hampshire State Climate Office, University of New Hampshire.

Tornadoes
Tornadoes are arguably the most violent storms on earth. They can have wind speeds well over 250 mph, with documented examples of trucks and railroad coaches being lifted off of the ground and dropped hundreds of feet away (Lutgens and Tarbuck, 1998). Similarly, large trees are easily uprooted, and houses present little resistance to the most powerful tornadoes. Fortunately, tornado outbreaks are relatively rare in New England when compared to frequencies on the Great Plains of the United States, e.g., Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. In fact, New England gets the fewest tornadoes of any region east of the Rocky Mountains. However, despite the low occurrence rate of these violent storms, there are documented cases in all corners of New England ranging from the Allagash Valley, Maine, in the northeast, to Nantucket Island in the southeast, Greenwich, Connecticut, in the southwest, and St. Albans, Vermont, in the northwest (Ludlum, 1976). The average New England tornado occurs in summer, in the late afternoon, and travels from southwest to northeast at a speed between 25 and 40 mph.

In New England, Massachusetts has the highest number of documented tornadoes (and obviously the highest annual average) and Rhode Island has the smallest number of documented events (Table 3). The area most affected by tornadoes lies just to the east of the Berkshires in north-central Massachusetts (Leathers, 1994). Maine, New Hampshire and Connecticut are close in number in their statewide tornado occurrence rates, averaging between 1.4 and 1.8 per year. However, tornado frequencies in New England pale in comparison to the Great Plains, which receive approximately ten times as many tornadoes as New England. For example, compare these averages to states like Texas and Oklahoma which reported 5860 (125 per year) and 2420 (51 per year) tornadoes, respectively, over this same time period.

Table 3.
Number of Documented Tornadoes for each N.E. State, 1950-96.
State Tornado Reports Average Per Year
Massachusetts 134 2.9
Maine 83 1.8
New Hampshire 73 1.6
Connecticut 65 1.4
Vermont 32 0.7
Rhode Island 8 0.2
Source is the National Severe Storms Laboratory.

New England gets far fewer tornadoes than most other states because of its location. It is situated far enough north that the jet stream orientation for much of the year is located south of New England and relatively cool temperatures prevail in the region. The cooler temperatures serve to stabilize the atmosphere, which suppresses opportunities for the development of tornadoes. In summer (July and August, in particular), the jet stream moves farther north, bringing warmer conditions and greater instability to New England. This instability results in greater thunderstorm activity and the potential for tornado development. However, the cold water off the east coast of New England in summer lessens the intensity of thunderstorms, which are the purveyors of tornado outbreaks. As a result, tornadoes are rare within about 15 miles of the coast. Although the values in Table 3 are not adjusted for area, the relatively small number of events in Rhode Island is partly driven by its coastal location, even though the water temperatures are warmer in this region than along the eastern coastal zone of New England.

By far, the worst to strike in New England was the Worcester tornado of 9 June 1953 (Table 4). The Worcester tornado touched down at Petersham, Massachusetts, and took a path east-southeastward to Southboro, Massachusetts, covering 46 miles and lasting an hour and twenty minutes. Nested within the same storm system, two other tornadoes were spawned that day in Exeter, New Hampshire, and Sutton, Massachusetts. Clearly this was one of the worst tornado days in New England history, with 90 deaths from the one tornado alone (mostly in Worcester) and 94 from the three tornadoes combined (Ludlum, 1976). The second worst tornado (in New York and Massachusetts) led to 8 deaths. There have only been 17 tornadoes between 1880 and 1995 that are known to have taken lives in New England. Even weaker tornadoes can take lives as was the case on July 4, 1898, in Hampton, New Hampshire.

Table 4.
Most Deadly New England Tornadoes, 1880-95.
County, State Date Strength Est. Wind speed (mph) Injured Killed
Worcester, MA 9 June 1953 F4 207-260 1288 90
Essex, MA 26 July 1890 F3 158-206 63 8
Columbia, NY-
Berkshire, MA
28 August 1973 F4 207-260 31 4
Hampton, NH 4 July 1898 F1 73-112 120 3
Hartford, CT-
Hampden, MA
3 October 1979 F4 207-260 500 3
Berkshire, MA 29 May 1995 F3 158-206 24 3
Sources are Grazulius (1991) and The Tornado Project, St Johnsbury, Vermont found on the world wide web at http://www.tornadoproject.com/.

Figure 3.7 displays an annual time series of tornado frequencies in New England. This series includes all tornadoes of F1 strength (on the Fujita scale) or greater, which corresponds to wind speeds of 73 mph or more, but does not include F0 tornadoes. As shown, there were few powerful tornadoes near the turn of the 20th century, with some clustering of events beginning near 1950 and continuing into the early 1970s. The lower frequency in the early portion of the time series could simply be the result of lower population densities, lower reporting rates, and poor communication. The biggest year on record was 1972, which included a total of four events. Frequencies appear to have declined in the 1980s and 1990s, which is a time when global temperatures were largely above normal. It is probable that the recent decline is weather-related and not a societal artifact, as is likely in the earlier portion of the time series. This decline over the past two decades, however, is in contrast to the rest of the United States, where the 1990s have seen unprecedented numbers of reported tornadoes.

Value of Written Records
One of the most famous single events to influence New England climate, and an event that has been well documented in the annals of New England climate, was the 1815 volcanic eruption of Tambora, Indonesia, the largest known historical eruption in the world. Although situated almost directly on the equator and on the other side of the world, this extremely large eruption influenced global climate, with an especially severe impact on New England. The large amount of sulfuric acid eventually produced in the stratosphere by sulfur-rich gases released during the eruption blocked out solar radiation, resulting in a cooling of Earth’s surface for several years after the eruption. This process led to the famous "Year Without a Summer" of 1816. Many diaries and newspaper accounts from around New England make particular note of that cold summer including accumulating snow in early June in northern New England with flurries as far south as Massachusetts and Connecticut and exceptionally cold nights in July and early August that resulted in isolated pockets of frost (Ludlum, 1976). These highly unusual summer phenomena led to great crop losses (Stommel and Stommel, 1983).

Certainly the impact of the Tambora eruption was phenomenal in the annals of New England climate, but this is not to say that only an eruption of that size can have an impact on climate in this area. An evaluation of annual temperature and especially summer temperatures (June, July, August) in Durham, NH, over almost the last 100 years shows that some of the coolest summers follow major volcanic eruptions (Figure 3.8). Individuals whose livelihood is dependent on summer climatic conditions should be well aware of the potential for a very cool summer following the next major volcanic eruption.

However, it is also important to realize that volcanic eruptions are just one of the many factors that force and control New England’s climate. In the record of Durham annual and summer temperatures (Figure 3.8), there are other summers that are below the long-term trends. Moreover, it is clear that there is a periodicity in temperature trends in Durham such as the overall warmer conditions of the 1950s followed by the cooler 1960s. Our investigations are focusing on defining any long-term trends and the periodicity of these shorter-term fluctuations in temperature, both of which may be related to other climate-forcing factors such as variability in Earth’s orbital cycles, solar radiation, El Niño events, and greenhouse gases. Considering the tremendous impact and public awareness of the 1997-1998 El Niño event, we are evaluating the impact of other El Niño events (of varying intensity) during this past century to quantify the range of climatic impact from El Niño in New England. We need to "single-out" the impact of each of these forcing factors, including the volcanic forcing component, on New England’s climate to better inform the general public on what may be expected in the future.

In contrast to the frequently referenced cold summer of 1816 throughout New England, a series of snow storms between 17 and 24 February 1893 has not been given the recognition it may deserve as one of New England's greatest snow events. Most compilations of blizzards, and thus nor'easters , in New England, highlight the storms of 1717 and 1888 as among the greatest in historical time (e.g., Ludlum, 1976; Kocin and Uccellini, 1990). For instance, a series of four storms between 27 February and 7 March 1717 dumped upwards of 35-45 inches across southern New England, while the 11-14 March 1888 blizzard dumped up to 50 inches of snow in some parts of central Connecticut and 30-36 inches in southern New Hampshire (Ludlum, 1976). The large amount of snow from the 1888 blizzard resulted from a "stalled" low pressure system off of Block Island, Rhode Island, and thus from a single storm.

However, the diary of George H. Lang of Rye, NH, (diary dates 1871-1901) makes particular note of the series of snow storms between 17 and 24 February 1893. Five separate storms in quick succession resulted in the greatest snowfall accumulation that he had ever seen as he "shoveled out whole length of the district." He was 65 at the time of these storms. Lang notes that "a rough and tough old East snow storm set in" on 12 March 1888, and that it was "one of the rough ones for years, " but Lang makes no note of tremendous snowfalls in Rye like he did for the 1893 storms. Similarly, the diary of Seth Dame, Nottingham, NH, makes note of a blizzard on 20 February 1893 and a second blizzard on 22 February 1893. Both of these storms dropped about a foot of snow, and together with two 3+ inch accumulations on the days before and after these blizzards, a total of over 30 inches fell between 17 and 24 February 1893 in Nottingham. Dame also noted that a "severe snowstorm" occurred on 12 March 1888, but he makes no additional comments which would indicate that it was comparable to the 1893 snows.

Surprisingly, the only note in the compilation of extreme weather events by Ludlum (1976) that references an exceptionally large snowfall in late February of 1893 is that for Monroe in the Berkshires of western Massachusetts. That town recorded 53 inches over a six day period ending on 25 February which contributed to the snowiest February as well as the snowiest winter (1892-1893) on record in Monroe, at least prior to Ludlum’s compilation in 1976. Thus, the amount of snowfall in western Massachusetts to eastern New Hampshire between 19 and 25 February 1893 may have been equivalent to, if not more than, that of the great blizzard of 1888. In addition, both the Lang and Dame diaries note a severe storm on 13 February 1893 that produced a foot of snow in Nottingham. Southeastern New Hampshire was covered by over 40 inches of snow between 13 and 24 February 1893, amounts similar to that for the 1717 great snow.

The diaries of George H. Lang and Seth Dame and their accounts of the tremendous snows of February 1893 in the seacoast of New Hampshire as compared to those for the "Blizzard of ‘88" highlight the great potential for extreme events in New England climate. Our initial investigations into the wealth of information available in written records, such as the accounts of the tremendous snows of February 1893, also show the limited number of compilations of past climatic events now in existence. A thorough understanding of variability in the system requires the compilation of climatic records from across the area. No single record will provide the details needed to reconstruct what happened in the past and ultimately postulate what may happen in the future. This is particularly true for the extreme events discussed as well as other types of extreme events like hot spells, cold waves, floods and droughts. Everybody is well aware of the problems of predicting snowfall totals across New England with the approach of a coastal storm. Conditions can vary from no precipitation to rain to mixed precipitation to almost two feet of snow over a zone of less than 50-60 miles. It is important to use all available information to isolate trends in these extreme events and to understand the potential impact they had and could have on New England society both as a whole and within the various parts of the region. References
Dolan, R., and Davis, R.E. 1992. Rating Northeasters. Mariners Weather Log, Winter 1992:4-11.

Henderson-Sellers, A., Zhang, H., Berz, G., Emanual, K., Gray, W., Landsea, C., Holland, G., Lighthill, J., Shieh, S-L., Webster, P., and McGuffle, K. 1998. Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change: A Post-IPCC Assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79:19-38.

Keim, B.D. 1998. Record Precipitation Totals from the Coastal New England Rainstorm of 20-21 October 1996. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79: 1061-1067.

Kocin, P.J., and Uccellini, L.W. 1990. Snowstorms along the Northeastern Coast of the United States: 1955 to 1985. American Meteorological Society: Boston.

Leathers, D.J. 1994. A Tornado Climatology for the Northeastern United States. Publication No. RR 94-2, Northeast Regional Climate Center: Ithaca, New York.

Ludlum, D. 1976. The Country Journal: New England Weather Book. Houghton Mifflin: Boston.

Simpson, R.H., and Riehl, H. 1981. The Hurricane and Its Impact. Louisiana State University Press: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Stommel, H., and Stommel, E. 1983. Volcano Weather. Seven Seas Press: Newport, Rhode Island.

Report by:
Dr. Gregory A. Zielinski, Research Associate Professor in the Climate Change Research Center in the Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space and the Department of Earth Sciences.
Dr. Barry Keim, New Hampshire State Climatologist and Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography and the Climate Change Research Center in the Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space.
Mr. Justin Cox, Iola Hubbard Climate Change Endowment Undergraduate Summer Fellow.


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