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Durham NH Weather Review, 1999 December, 1999 December of 1999 will go into the record books as one that produced no measurable snow in the Seacoast region. For those folks anxiously awaiting the arrival of the first snowstorm, consider the following. Over the past 50 years, the first snow event (of an inch or more) in Durham has arrived as early as October 11 (1980) and as late as January 8 (1958). As of the writing of this story, we still have not experienced the first event. The average temperature for December was 4.5 degrees above normal, which follows the recent pattern of a mild start to winter. Precipitation (all rainfall, of course) totaled just over 2 inches, which is only about half of the average for the month. Snowfall in December averages near 14 inches, so with none recorded in December 1999, we are now way behind in this regard. The past year, 1999, came with the usual assortment of interesting weather and climate events. The absolute coldest temperature measured in 1999 was -10 degrees (January 31) and the absolute highest was a sizzling 99 degrees (July 17). The average monthly temperatures were above normal for 11 of the 12 months, and 8 months experienced below normal precipitation. The 1999 annual temperature average of 49.9 degrees was 3 degrees above normal, and is the fourth warmest year on record at Durham. The warmest year on record since record keeping began over a one hundred years ago was 1998, followed by 1953, 1949, and then 1999, respectively. Despite this year's drought, precipitation for the year totaled 38.7 inches, which is only about 2.5 inches below normal. Snowfall for 1999 totaled 26 inches which is less than half of the normal of 55 inches. Back in January, the first month of 1999, the weather featured mild temperatures, very little snow, though the roads and sidewalks were frequently icy. There was no measurable snowfall in February! That has only happened twice in Durham over the past 100+ years. March produced the only significant snowstorm of the season with over 10 inches accumulating on March 6-7. April began the drought conditions that persisted throughout summer. In fact April's half-inch of precipitation was the second driest on record since 1896. May brought us the record high wind of 109 mph at Pease, resulting from a microburst during an afternoon thunderstorm. In general, the summer was warm and dry. Most notably, June received less than an inch of rain and was one of the driest Junes on record, while in July, we experienced several days with afternoon high temperatures over 90 degrees. September broke the drought as more than 9 inches of rainfall fell across the region. Most of the rain was tropical in nature, which was associated with the remnants of Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd. October was the only month of the year with a below normal average temperature, while November and December were warm, dry, and snowless. So what can we expect from 2000 and beyond weatherwise? Expect the unexpected, since afterall, this IS New England. In any given year, it seems that Mother Nature throws the entire kitchen sink at the region, complete with extreme high and low temperatures, large precipitation events, droughts, hurricanes, etc. We can expect all of the above in the years to come, and then some. The million dollar question at the moment is whether the warmish years we've experienced in the 1990s are a manifestation of human-induced global warming. Unfortunately, this question is likely to remain unanswered in the near future, but don't be surprised if some cold and snowy winters return to our region. November, 1999 After a cool and wet October, New England weather returned to a pattern similar to this past summer, i.e., warmer and drier than normal. The average temperature for November was about 5 degrees above normal, making 16 of the past 17 month warmer than normal in this area. However, temperatures during the month took some wild swings between warm and cold, especially considering the wind chill that caused this air to feel much colder that it actually was. The highest temperature topped out at 70 degrees on November 24, which is near 25 degrees above normal. That day (right before Thanksgiving) set new high temperature records all over the northeast region! Although thermometer readings were never exceptionally low (20 degrees was the lowest for the month), high winds dropped wind chills to near 0 degrees on several occasions. For example, November 16th averaged over 20 mph winds for the entire day! That makes the air temperature feel about 20 to 30 degrees colder than the thermometer readings. Almost the entire first half of the month was windier than normal. Rainfall for November in this area was around 2 inches, which is 2 to 3 inches below normal for November -- which is on average our wettest month of the year. Much to the disappointment of snow lovers, the Seacoast region has yet to experience its first significant snow storm, despite a few reports of flurries in the middle of the month. Then, of course, there was the infamous "near miss" of a coastal noreaster that veered too far out to sea at the end of the month. The normal date for the first 1 inch snow in the Seacoast is around November 12. Just sit tight, the snow is bound to fly sooner or later. However, note that one winter, the first winter snow in Durham didn't occur until mid-January! So, what's ahead for December? Shorter daylengths for certain as well as temperatures averaging lower than this past November. Another sure bet is a lot of happy children on the December 25th, especially if it is a white Christmas. One more sure bet...on December 22, the winter Solstice will occur at precisely 2:45 a.m. commensurate with a full moon that is in perigee, i.e., at its closest approach to the earth during 1999. Merry Christmas from Barry and Norm. October, 1999 October 1999 will go into the record books as the first colder than normal month for well over a year. The average temperature was near 1 degree below normal. The Seacoast region has been in a pattern of warmer than normal monthly conditions almost exclusively since November of 1997. The one exception to this pattern was the rainy month of June 1998, which was also only slightly below normal. Could this be a sign that weather patterns are shifting and that we may be looking at a cold winter ahead? "Yes" says the Old Farmer's Almanac, but just a bit colder than normal. The Climate Prediction Center is predicting close to normal temperatures this winter in this region and wetter than normal conditions in the mountains. However, since the skill in long-range forecasts has yet to be demonstrated, about the only bet we would make is that this winter is likely to be colder than the past two winter seasons, which are among the mildest of the past 100 years. The first freeze of the season occurred on October 6, where the temperature dropped to 30 degrees. The coldest temperature of the month was 26 degrees on the 26th, which was followed by a classic example of Indian Summer on Halloween weekend. Precipitation for October totaled just a bit below 4 inches, which is as close to normal as one can expect. The heaviest one-day rainfall event was 1.13 inches which occurred on October 23. Despite the summer drought, total precipitation for 1999 to date is near 38 inches over 2 inches above normal! This large total was primarily produced by rains in January, September, and October. So what's ahead for November? There are some sure bets such as the daylight hours decreasing by exactly one hour and more than 90 percent of the leaves will be off of the trees by the 30th. Usually, the first snow event of one inch or more typically occurs near November 12. Although unusual, we can also have heavy snow events in November, like the 12 inches that was recorded on November 18, 1980 in Durham. Nor'easters are not unusual either. In fact, one of the most severe storms ever recorded struck this area on November 26-27, 1950. That storm caused over $15 million in damage along the coast. In today's value of the dollar, that was close to $2 billion. In summary, November simply reminds us that winter is just around the corner. September, 1999 September weather was warm, wet, and wild. The highlights for the month were clearly produced by the presence of Hurricane Floyd, who also devastated southeastern North Carolina. By the time Floyd arrived in New England, his mood was milder, but was still wild enough to produce heavy rainfall across much of the region to the tune of 4 to 5 inches. Although higher winds were expected, peak gusts in this area were near 45 mph. Across New England, the highest winds recorded was 74 mph at New Bedford, MA, highest rainfall was 10.8 inches at Bristol, CT, and highest storm surge was 10.7 feet at Boston. As usual, temperature for the month reached over 3 degrees above normal. This has become a recurring theme in the Seacoast region over the past 2 years. Portsmouth even reached 92 degrees on the afternoon of September 3rd, to add to the impressive number of days reaching over 90 degrees for the year. Rainfall for September totaled near 9 inches in the region. This rainfall put an end to the problems associated with the summer drought, including the refilling of reservoirs and recharging the soil moisture. Most of the rain came in two bursts; the first of these was produced by remnants of Tropical Storm Dennis on September 10. This storm, like Floyd, also produced about 4 inches of rain in the area. The second event was the rains from Floyd, which followed Dennis by only 6 days. Surprisingly, despite the summer drought, the region is now ahead of schedule for rainfall for 1999. To date since January, Portsmouth has received 34.15 inches, which is nearly 3 inches above normal for this point in the year. So what's ahead for October? Foliage season for starters. Every year, it seems that there are gloom and doom predictions for foliage colors. Last year, it was the heavy rains in June, this year it's drought, yet the foliage is consistently beautiful. So go out and enjoy it. Another sure bet for October is a killing frost just about everywhere, and the Presidential Range will indeed become the "White" Mountains with first significant snows within the state. Also note that October is the longest month of year; 31 days PLUS one hour, as we move our clocks back to end daylight savings time near the end of the month. August, 1999 Despite the active tropical storm season now underway (none of which came close New England, consequently), August weather was dry, dry ,dry. Incredibly, nearly half of the days in August experienced at least some precipitation, but the rainfall amounts were paultry and did little to relieve the current drought. The heaviest single day of precipitation at either Durham or Portsmouth only totaled 0.26 inches and the total for the entire month at Durham was 1.3 inches - less than half of what is normal for August. Thus far, total precipitation from April through August of 1999 has been among the driest of the past century. Durham shows that the average monthly temperature was over 2 degrees above normal, continuing our string of warmer than normal months to 16 straight. Fortunately, though, afternoon highs exceeded 90 degrees only twice, much to heat-haters delight, which is a marked improvement over June and July's extreme high temperatures. So what's ahead for September? More than likely, we will continue to see the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes that can threaten the eastern United States. Might one of these bring us some needed rain? Only time will tell. Furthermore, temperatures will continue to tumble as daylight hours get shorter and the sun's rays weak. Daytime temperatures drop from an average in the mid 70s early in the month, to the low the mid 60s by the 30th. Morning lows in the 60s are common during the first week of September, but upper 30s are not uncommon at the nearer the end of the month. The first day of Autumn (the Equinox) will begin at precisely 7:30 am on September 23rd. Oddly enough, that does not mean that the 23rd will see exactly 12 hours of daylight, we will have to wait until the 26th for that! July, 1999 Hot and dry best characterizes the weather this past July. As a result, its likely that most people were glad to see the month, and its 90 degree plus temperatures, end. Perhaps the biggest highlight for the month was the 109 mph wind gust that was reported on the 18th at Portsmouth. Personnel at Pease notified us that the runway there has wind sensors at both ends. On one end, the 109 mph wind was measured, while at the other end (located about 2 miles away), maximum winds were less than 20 mph. This demonstrates how localized high winds can be when associated with thunderstorms. These high winds displaced 500 lbs containers on the base. Winds, as such, termed micro-bursts, are very unpredictable and can be dangerous to aircraft, especially during landings. Overall, July averaged over 2 degrees above normal, which has continued our string of months with above normal temperatures to 13 straight, and 19 of the past 20. Although the Seacoast has not yet broken100 degrees this summer, we've had some close calls. Official records at Portsmouth indicate that July reached 97 degrees twice, and had 7 afternoons with temperatures over 90. To add insult to injury, we have not experienced the cooling sea breeze as often as usual, and the humidity has been exceptionally high on many of the extremely hot days. Rainfall is still running well below normal, with July recording less than an inch. Normal for this time of year is over 3 inches. Furthermore, less than 2 inches were recorded at Portsmouth over the past two months combined, whereas nearly 6 is considered normal for this period. The dry conditions, which have prevailed since April, along with the high temperatures, is causing serious stress to agriculture, lawns, water wells, and lake levels. Conservation policies are now being enforced in many communities. So what's up for August? Cooler temperatures are typical, especially at night. However, heatwaves and high humidity are still possible. The tropical storm season tends to be much more active, and these storms can make it all the way to New England, i.e., Hurricanes Carol and Dianne in 1955. Although no one wants a direct hit from a tropical storm, a glancing blow with some rain would do wonders for brown lawns and diminishing water supplies. June, 1999 "What a difference a year makes." Remember June 1998? A year ago, a foot of rain fell over most of the area, with temperatures averaging below normal. This year, Mother Nature has balanced the scales with well above-average temperatures and rainfall in Portsmouth at only a tenth of foot. As incredible as it may seem, only six one-hundreths of an inch of rain fell between June 1 and June 23. The lack of moisture has only complicated pre-existing water shortage problems, as both April and May were also dry months. As bad as the drought problems are in this area, they are even worse in locations to the south. For example, there was no measurable precipitation in Boston for the entire month of June! To add insult to injury, monthly average temperature for June 1999 was more than 4 degrees above normal. The high temperatures culminated on June 7, when the tempera- ture soared to 97 degrees. The Seacoast also had a heatwave from June 26-29, with afternoon high temperatures all exceeding 90 degrees, which when coupled with excessively high humidity on the 28th and 29th made the month more than memorable. Interestingly, the above-normal temperatures for the month were not the least bit unusual. Each of the past 12 months have had above- normal average monthly temperatures, and so have 18 of the past 19 months. What's ahead for July? Unfortunately, July is known for thunder-storms, with their hit and miss type of rainfall. Your neighbor three blocks away may get dumped on with over an inch of rain, but all you see is a sprinkle. In general, the closer to the coast you live the less likely you are to see the thunder-storms. In other words, the chances of that type of rainfall breaking the current drought conditions are slim. Perhaps the forecasts for an active tropical storm season is just what the doctor ordered ... but let's make it a "weak" system, so that we get the rain and not the wind! As for temperature, this is the month when temperatures average out at their highest for the season. Heatwaves, i.e., three or more days in a row with high temperatures above 90 degrees, are not rare. Based on what we've seen recently, don't be surprised if we see more than one of these in July 1999. On the plus side, ocean tempera- tures are also warming up and by the end of the month, they should reach close to 70 degrees near the shore. May, 1999 May lived up to its reputation as one of the most delightful months, despite the black flies. Temperatures averaged near normal, with below average rainfall. Following one of the driest Aprils on record, early May 1999 showed signs of change as more than an inch of rain was recorded. But this Was followed by 10 straight days with no precipitation at all. Overall, less than 3 inches of rain fell in the region during the month, which is about an inch below nor- mal. This should further add to moisture shortage problems (i.e., fire hazards) in the area. Temperature for the month was as close to normal as one can expect. Morning low temperatures were mostly in the 40s, with afternoon highs mostly in the 60s. The last signs of frost were seen on May 14, which is, again, close to the norm. What's up for June? Noisier storms! We are more likely to see thun- derstorms in June than in any of the previous six months. However, let's hope that we don't see the rainfall of biblical proportions that we experienced last June when it rained two out of three days in the month and included rainfall of more than 8 inches in less than two days! Sure bets for June include longer daylight hours through the summer solstice (June 21 at 3:49 p.m.) and more sunburns. June also marks the beginning of the tropical storm season, and "experts" are calling for an above normal season in terms of hurricane frequencies and intensities. April, 1999 April weather in the Seacoast area will go down in the record books as one of the driest on record. Precipitation at both Portsmouth and Durham averaged near a half inch, which is about 3.5 inches below the long-term mean. For Durham, this was the second driest April over a record that dates back to 1896 and was the driest since 1941, when 0.4 inches was recorded. Other dry Aprils include 1896 (0.98 inches) and 1927 (0.93 inches), whereas the wettest was 1973 when 13.35 inches was recorded. It is not that storm systems did not develop near New England this past April. The dry weather was simply produced by the fact that the storms mostly tracked to the south of New England, bringing us cloudiness, but little to no rain. Several problems stem from these drier than normal conditions, including enhanced forest fire and brush fire dangers, as well as increased pollen loading in the atmosphere. Unlike some Aprils of the recent past, this one did not bring us any surprise snowstorms. The pattern of warmer than normal temperatures in the Seascoast region continues. Temperature in the region averaged near 1.5 degrees above normal. This marks the tenth straight month with above normal temperatures, and 16 of the past 17 months have been above normal. Exactly why the temperatures have consistently remained above normal over such an extended period is a bit of a mystery. Perhaps it is related to global warming, and/or it could be related to shifts in North American storm tracks and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns. What's up for May? Many people, including our wives, think that May is the most delightful month of year. Rarely is it too hot or cold, and plant life returns to the region in the form of flowers and budding trees. Early morning frosts can occur during the first half of the month, but are rare after that, especially near the coast. However, for very tender plants, play it safe and hold off planting until after Memorial Day. May also represents a shift from prolonged rains to short-lived afternoon showers. With any luck, this May will restore balance to our dry April by bringing some soaking rains. There is, of course, no way to predict rainfall amounts a month in advance as last months long range forecast by the Old Farmer's Almanac called for a wet and cool April. March, 1999 March weather in southern New Hampshire was warm, snowy, and windy. Despite early season forecasts for a cold March, the region experienced temperatures that averaged over 2 degrees F above normal. So much for long-term forecasting! This marks the ninth straight month with above normal monthly temperatures. Furthermore, 15 of the past 16 months have been warmer than normal. The warmest temperature recorded in March was 72 degrees on the 31st. Last year on this same day, Portsmouth recorded a record-breaking 90 degrees, with most sites in the region having temperatures in the high eighties. And two years ago on this same day, a snowstorm of catastrophic proportions had ensued. It just so happens that March was, by far, the snowiest month of this past winter season with 18 inches of the white stuff. Hence March snowfall was over 6 inches above normal, but for the season, the region is still about 16 inches short of what is expected. Despite the shortfall of snow this season, total precipitation, including rain, is above normal for March, and for the year. So far, 1999 has accumulated 15 inches of liquid precipitation, which is about 4.5 inches above the average for this time of the year. March is also known for it's windiness and 1999 didn't let us down. High winds were prevelent on several days during the month. February, 1999 The trend of above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall continued on in the New Hampshire Seacoast region. Temperatures for the month averaged about 5 degrees above normal. But strangely enough, there were no exceptionally warm or cold days. However, temperatures in the area did dip into the single digits on February 22-23, which is not all that unusual normally, but has been in recent years. This marks the eighth straight month with above normal temperatures in the region. Oddly, total precipitation for the area was near 4.5 inches, which is above normal by over an inch. However, snowfall totaled less than 5 inches for the month, which is less than one third what is normal for February. Furthermore, the Seacoast has received only about half the normally expected snowfall amount for the winter season...at least thus far. The most notable snow event occurred on February 25-26, where Portsmouth received nearly all of its 5 inches of snow, while less fell on the west side of Great Bay. We note that only 5 inches fell, despite forecasts for heavier snowfall totals for all of southern New Hampshire and Coastal Maine. A slight shift in the predicted storm track left egg on the faces on most forecasters region-wide. However, the forecasters were not all wrong because heavy snowfall amounts, on the order of 20 inches, did pelt southeastern Massachusetts, including 17 inches on Nantucket. What's in store for March, Well, it has a notorious reputation for powerful storms, high winds, and changeable temperatures. You may recall last year, where the end of March reached temperatures up to 90 degrees. In addition, the "storm of the century" snowstorm of 1993 occurred in March and dumped heavy snowfall from Georgia to Maine. So as usual, expect the unexpected over the next several weeks. January, 1999 January rains have broken a two and a half month drought in southern New Hampshire. Precipitation for the month totaled well over 6 inches in the region, which is nearly twice what is normal for January. This is in stark contrast to the meager 3.5 inches recorded from mid- October through the end of December of 1998. Unfortunately for Seacoast residents, however, much of January's precipitation came in the form of freezing rain, or rain on top of snow, which later froze. These conditions have left many roads and sidewalks slippery beyond belief. As a result, an enormous quantity of salt and sand was used, draining local government budgets. Temperatures for January were erratic. Mother Nature delivered a reading of -10 F to Durham on the 31st, while Portsmouth reached a balmy 60 F just seven days prior, on the 24th. Overall the month was about 2 degrees above normal. This marks the 7th straight month in which monthly average temperatures were above the mean for the month. Furthermore, 13 of the past 14 months have been above normal. The only month below normal since November 1997, was June 1998. So what's ahead for February? if the Ground Hog is correct, winter is over! However, we don't usually put much stock in Puxatawny Phil. But often, February is a snowy month, so don't store away the snow blower. February is also the month where temperatures begin to increase and by the end of the month, thawing temperatures during the daytime hours are the rule rather than the exception. There is one sure bet and that is that by the end of February, the amount of daylight will have increased by over 60 minutes. |
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