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Durham NH Weather Review, 2000 December, 2000 November, 2000 New England weather for November 2000 featured temperatures above normal, total rainfall that was close to normal, and the first killing frost. Temperatures for the month averaged close to 2 degrees above normal. Although the Seacoast region had experienced light freezes in October, morning temperatures did not drop below 28 degrees (the definition of a killing frost) until November 19! That's late for this area. Then, as many of you must remember, the region fell into the grips of a severe arctic outbreak during, and shortly after, Thanksgiving Day. The two mornings following turkey day, we experienced, respectively, low temperatures of 12 and 10 degrees, ergo the coldest days, so far, of the season. Despite some close calls, the Seacoast still has not recorded its first significant snowstorm. The most recent close call was on the last day of the month, when a "noreaster" produced modest amounts of snow in the Merrimack River Valley, but the Seacoast region only received mixed precipitation. Despite the lack of snow, precipitation was well over 4 inches, but that is typical for November - normally the wettest month of the year. So, what's ahead for December? Two certainties are that daylight hours will continue to shorten up until the winter solstice occurs at 8:37 AM on the 21st, and there will be a lot of happy children the morning of the 25th. A good bet is for colder temperatures and perhaps the first snow storm of the season. The average date for the first snowstorm occurs around November 23, so we are already a bit late. However, remember last year? The first snowstorm did not occur until January 16!....the latest, by far, on record. So everyone should exercise their power of positive thinking and hope and wish for a White Christmas this year. And that would make the happy children ecstatic! Happy holidays! October, 2000 "From the sublime to the ridiculous." What better phrase to describe October's weather. October weather was schizophrenic with many beautiful, bright sunny days, without a cloud in the sky, and then came the last three days of the month! Durham experienced summer-like high temperatures of 80 degrees on both the 14th and 15th and a chilly morning low of 28 degrees on the 24th, for the monthly extremes. After all was said and done, Durham temperatures averaged about a half-degree above normal. The average would have been even higher, if not for the rapid temperature drop that kept daytime readings in the 30s to low 40s from the 29th through Halloween. Precipitation totaled nearly 3 inches, which is about a half inch below normal. Most of this rain was concentrated in three rain events (6th, 18th- 19th, and the 30th-31st). Otherwise, fair conditions dominated the region, which produced some delightful days for leaf peeping. We can barely remember a month with so many cloudless days as this past October. Now that October's records are in the files, what can we expect in November? Usually the 11th month of the year brings us more cloudy days than October, along with an increasing threat of significant nor'easters, (even snowstorms), especially at the tail end of the month. Those of you "over 40" may remember the Thanksgiving day snowstorm that dropped well over a foot of snow in 1971 or the very stormy November the following year of 1972. In recent years, however, significant snowfall has been conspicuous in its absence. Temperatures continue to become consistently colder so that by Thanksgiving the normal high temperature is in the 40s and nighttime lows are almost always below freezing. Added to the threat of storms and lots of cloudy days, the deciduous trees shed the remainder of their leaves and that means lots of raking! The net result can make November one of those months that some folks consider the dreariest month of the year. Oh...and the chance for a "white" Thanksgiving in this area -- about 1 in 7! September, 2000 September weather can be summed up in one word, "beautiful." Unlike last year where two tropical storm systems produced heavy rains and some flooding, September 2000 was mercifully void of severe weather highlights. Afternoon temperatures averaged a delightful 73 degrees, with morning minimum temperatures near 48. In September, we experienced the second 90 degree day of the year on September 1st. Oddly, this is only the second day of the year that has climbed to 90 degrees the other was on May 7, hence we did not make it to 90 degrees in the more typical months of June, July, and August. The Seacoast did experience its first fall freezes, albeit light, on the mornings of the 29th and 30th. In all, the month averaged about one half a degree above normal, breaking our unusual string of 2 cooler than normal months in row. Rainfall for the month was just under three inches and was near a half inch below normal. For the year, Durham has recorded 32 inches of precipitation. Normal precipitation for this point in the year is 30 inches. So what's ahead for October? Cooler nights, shorter days, apple harvests, and foliage season. Another sure bet for October is a killing frost just about everywhere, and the Presidential Range will again become the "White" Mountains with first significant snows within the state. Although unlikely, it is also not impossible for the Seacoast to get a snowstorm in October. As recently as 1979, Durham recorded a 3 inch snowstorm on October 11! Also note that October is the longest month of year; 31 days PLUS one hour, as we move our clocks back to end daylight savings time near the end of the month. As result of moving back to standard time (Sunday, October 29), and the new moon on the 29th, trick or treaters are going find a dark halloween night. August, 2000 August weather in the Seacoast region is highlighted by cool temperatures. Not once did this area experience a day of 90 degrees or over. In fact, during the hottest afternoons of the month, the temperature only reached 86 degrees - on both the 9th and 31st. Most days had high temperatures in upper 70s and low 80s making this past month delightful. Overall, the average monthly temperature was about a one-half degree below normal. The average monthly temperatures for both July and August were below normal for the first since 1992! Unlike July, only 2 inches of rain fell in August, which is over an inch below normal. However, we experienced 10 days with at least some rainfall in the area, which is close to the long-term average for the number of rainy days during the month. However, the amounts of rain were generally quite small. Most of this rain was concentrated in the first part of the month. The waning days of August began to produce some more typical summer heat, caused primarily by the absence of the cooling effects of clouds and/or rain in the afternoon. So, what's ahead for September? Already you can see the color appearing in some of the trees, which serves as a reminder that the symptoms of fall are already here and by the end of the month, they will be quite evident. Some sure bets - first of all the traffic will decrease steadily the rest of the month, especially during weekends. Also, the amount of daylight will decrease rapidly. The autumnal equinox takes place on the 22nd of the month at 1:27 p.m. From that moment on (for the next six months), the sun will radiate more energy into the Southern Hemisphere than it will in the one we inhabit. If temperatures are anywhere near normal, we should see a steady decline in afternoon high temperatures from the mid-70s early in the month, giving way to the upper 60s by the end of the month. A heat wave with temperatures over 90 degrees is not out of the question early in September, but these are rare events at this time of year. A killing frost is also a good bet for those located a mile or more from the ocean. Rainfall averages near 3 inches, but we should always be prepared for a tropical storm or hurricane. Even the remnants of tropical storms can produce heavy rainfall, such as last year when dying hurricane Dennis produced over 5 inches of rain across the region. That event was followed by hurricane Floyd only a week later putting an end to a season long drought! Barry Keim is the New Hampshire State Climatologist and an Associate Professor at the University of New Hampshire. Norman Macdonald is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist in York, Maine. July, 2000 June, 2000 May, 2000 The most unusual thing about May was that the climate turned out the be NORMAL! That is, as normal as things get in the New England weather business. For those of you that thought May was unusually cool, you're wrong! Despite some cool days, the month averaged slightly ABOVE normal (by 0.2 degrees at Durham). However, May is another example of how averages can be misleading. When we examine the details of the daily temperatures over the month we find that the first 8 days were exceptionally warm, peaking at 92 degrees on the 7th. But during the latter part of the month, daily temperatures were below normal on about 15 of the last 20 days. If you thought that the Memorial Day weekend was chilly, you'd be right. The last two days of the long weekend saw temperatures holding in the 50s, with a chilly northeast wind. Rainfall for the month was also near normal. We received 3.3 inches of rainfall, whereas 3.6 inches is the long-term average for the month. In the climate world, this IS normal. Perhaps the most unusual occurrence during this otherwise "normal" month, was that nasty mid morning thunderstorm on the 25th. It was unusual because it occurred during the mid morning hours, temperatures were in the mid 50s, and there was heavy, dense fog! The lightning and thunder was as intense as one sees in mid summer afternoon thunderstorms. So, what's ahead for the rest of this month of June? There is the potential for the month to be the sunniest of the year. Daylight hours definitely are longer this month than any other over the year due to summer solstice which will occur on the 20th (9:48 PM to be precise). June is also a month when sun seekers can run into real trouble. Unlike July and August when the air is often quite humid, sunny days in June are often accompanied by low humidity. The latter means that the heat from the sun is not as noticeable as it is later in the season. Ergo, sun bathing for more than a few minutes, especially in the middle of the day, can easily lead to an uncomfortable night. June can also have heatwaves (with temperatures over 90 degrees) and thunderstorm activity also increases. On the average, we see and hear 4 of those bright and noisy storms during the month of June, though the Seacoast region experiences fewer thunderstorms that most anyplace in the eastern United States. April, 2000 April is indeed a cruel month, having teased us with temperatures in the upper 70s at the beginning of the month, then it turned around to bring us heavy rain and snowfall! The latter half of April was also noteworthy for persistent cloudiness as well as relentless rains. For 12 straight days from April 19-30, at least a trace of precipitation was recorded on each day. For the month, over six inches of precipitation was recorded at Durham, which is nearly 2.5 inches above the norm. Most of this precipitation fell between the 21st and 23rd, when a slow moving coastal noreaster produced between 4 and 5 inches of rainfall across much of New England. Just three days later on April 26, most of New England, including the Seacoast, received snowfall! Fortunately, the surface was above freezing and very little of the snow accumulated. Although this is not the latest snow event on record, snow is uncommon in the latter half of April. But note that the area has recorded measurable snow as late as May, and traces of snow have fallen even in the months of June and July! For those of you with short weather memories, April 2000 precipitation was in marked contrast to April 1999, when only a half inch of rain was recorded - the second driest April since 1895. Given the clouds, rain, and snow, it is not surprising that the latter half of April was quite cool. However, the beginning of April was warm. Overall, the month averaged about 2 degrees above normal. This is the sixth straight month with an above normal monthly temperature, and remarkably, 27 of the past 29 months have been above the norm! What's ahead for us in May? Even in New England, there are some sure bets. We will see some frosty mornings well into the first half of the month. By month's end, the leaves on the deciduous trees will be giving us plenty of shade, and traffic on I-95 will increase dramatically, especially on weekends. The "not so sure bets" include the long range forecasts of the Old Farmers Almanac (OFA) and that of the National Weather Service (NWS). The OFA is calling for a hot and dry May, while the NWS is forecasting normal conditions. However, please note that neither the OFA, nor the NWS, were even close to producing an accurate forecast of the wet and wild April of 2000. Our bet is that May will be much merrier that April, despite the black flies. How can we lose on that one? March, 2000 If you like changeability in your weather, March 2000 should be a memorable month for you. The month came complete with wild temperature swings, high winds, heavy snow (when little to none was forecast), along with heavy rainfall. March's average temperature was nearly 6 degrees above normal! This continues the region's pattern of above normal monthly temperatures. This departure represents the sixth warmest March on record since 1895! Not only was the temperature warm, but it also included some rapid changes. The most notable being a high reading of 71 degrees, which tumbled down to 10 degrees two days later, following a snowstorm! Imbedded within these two days was a 40 degree drop in temperature in about 15 hours. As was typical for this winter, precipitation was again above normal, although snowfall was below the long-term average. Precipitation totaled close to 4 inches, which is about an inch more than normal. The most notable was a rainstorm of 1.3 inches on the 28th. As for snow, Durham recorded 6 inches, but that was over 3 inches below normal. The fact that the short-range weather forecast for the storm on the 11th was a "bust" only further demonstrates our inability to make accurate predictions, even 24-hours in advance. Light snow quickly changing to rain was the original prediction. However, the "changeover" never happened. Consequently, parts of the Seacoast area recorded up to 9 inches of snow. So what's ahead for the rest of April? Well....expect just about anything. April is truly one of the swing months that can demonstrate that summer is just around the corner, but also that winter isn't quite over. Temperatures in the 90s have been recorded, but so have major snowstorms. Some of the largest flooding events in New England history have occurred in this month too. As T.S. Elliot put it "April is the cruelest month." February, 2000 February 2000 stayed in step with this past December and January, i.e., warm and wet, but with below normal snowfall. Temperatures for the past month averaged nearly 4 degrees above normal. Although we recorded some chilly temperatures, e.g., 1 and 2 degrees on the mornings of the 13th and 18th, respectively, there were some impressively warm afternoon high temperatures that reached well into the 50s. Many of these highs, although close to record- breaking, did not quite make it over that threshold. This past month's above normal temperature continues the run of warmer than normal months that began in earnest in December of 1997! Since then, only two monthly average temperatures were below normal (June 98 and October 99). So, it appears that global warming may be a reality, but the question still remains as to what is causing it. Is it human-induced or natural? One benefit resulting from the winter warming is that our heating costs are reduced. Despite the high cost of fuel oil this winter, demand for energy was actually less than the long-term average because the winter (December through February), was warmer than the norm. Total precipitation was slightly over 3 inches, which is very close to normal. The most notable day of precipitation occurred on the 14th when nearly 2 inches of rainfall was recorded at the Portsmouth location. However, despite the normal precipitation total, snowfall was still below average. Eight inches were officially recorded in Durham, while over 13 inches were logged in Portsmouth. In Durham, the snow was about 5 inches below the average. For the season, the total of 21 inches at Durham is about half of the normal for this time in the snow season. Although the first snowfall was very late this year, temperatures remained consistently below freezing from mid-January through mid- February, allowing the snow to persist on the ground. Only at the end of the month did some warm temperatures and rain put it down the drain. So what's ahead for March? One sure bet is the Equinox. Since this is a leap year, the equinox will arrive early at 2:35 a.m. on March 20th and the daylength will increase by almost 1.5 hours from the beginning to the end of the month. March's high temperatures average in the mid 40s, with lows in the mid 20s. But, since March is notoriously windy, there will be days when the air will feel as cold as it did in the heart of winter. Also remember that some of the worst noreasters on record have occurred in March, including the "storm of the century" in 1993. Although temperatures are currently mild, winter is not quite over yet. January, 2000 Some things never change! New England weather in the first month of the new millennium lived up to historical tradition; unpredictable and extreme. In the end, however, everything balanced out to near normal conditions. Despite the extreme swing from very mild to cold over the month, temperature averaged about 1 degree above normal, which continues our persistent warmer than normal monthly averages over the past couple of years. If you thought that the temperatures were unseasonably warm at the beginning of the month, they were just that. In fact, for nearly the first two weeks of January, temperatures averaged about 13 degrees above normal! Then, the reality of winter set in with excessively low temperatures and biting wind chills that sometimes dropped to - 50 degrees during the latter half of the month. Incredibly, from January 14-23, the air temperature in Durham remained entirely below freezing. In addition, temperatures failed to rise above 18 degrees from Jan 20-23, with a minimum temperature of -10 recorded on January 19! As noted, even though January's temperature averaged near normal, it clearly was a topsy turvy month. It provides us with another classic example of how averages for an entire month can be very misleading in capturing the true essence of the day-to-day weather variations. Just to set the record straight, the term "normal" as used by climatologists is an average that is based on the most recent thirty years of weather data. Precipitation for January totaled just over three inches, which is near a half-inch above normal. Despite above normal precipitation, the January snowfall of 13 inches was over 3 inches below normal for the month. The real story regarding snowfall was the late date for the first snow event. On average, the first snow event of 1 inch of more occurs on November 24. The latest first snow event recorded in Durham, up until this year, occurred on January 8, 1958. This winter, the record date was pushed back to January 16! Impressive snow events also occurred on January 25 (which was not forecast very well) and January 31. For the season to date, total snowfall is usually close to 30 inches. However, with a snowless November and December, we are woefully short on the white stuff. What's ahead for the rest of February? Most likely lots of weather adventures and a continuation of cold conditions. At least that's what Punxsutawney Phil has stated by running scared of his own shadow. With long- term forecasting, a groundhog's guess is as good as anybody. |
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